The Elections Research Center conducted surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on February 11-20 that asked voting-age citizens which presidential candidate they plan to vote for in the primary and general elections. Among other items, the survey asked respondents planning to participate in the primary who they will support and also featured head-to-head matchups between top candidates in the Democratic field and President Donald Trump for the general election.
Survey Results:
The survey reveals that Senator Bernie Sanders is the leading candidate in the primary contest with a sizable lead in Michigan and Wisconsin but a narrower lead in Pennsylvania. In the general election, all leading Democratic candidates either slightly lead or are tied with Trump in head-to-head matchups.
Other results reveal that Democratic primary voters do not differ much in their choices by gender but do by race and age. Joe Biden remains the top choice for black voters whereas Sanders leads among Whites and Hispanics. Younger voters are more likely to support Sanders, while older voters divide their support between Biden and Michael Bloomberg.
Read our press release:
Read more detailed crosstab results:
The results of the head-to-head matchups between Democratic candidates and Trump are straight forward: None of these states will be easily won by either party. All leading Democratic candidates have a slight lead over President Trump, but this difference is within our survey’s margin of error, suggesting a very close race come November.
Other results are available in our press release.
About the survey:
The survey was conducted by YouGov, and the poll in Wisconsin was conducted in partnership with the Wisconsin State Journal.
The samples of 1,300 in Michigan, 1,300 in Pennsylvania, and 1,000 in Wisconsin were selected and weighted to reflect the adult population in each state based on gender, age, and education.
The margin of error in each state sample ranges between plus or minus 3 to 4 percentage points.
This survey is the first of three in these 2020 battleground states that the Elections Research Center will conduct.
Click on the descriptions below to reveal the results of our survey.
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Democratic Primary Candidate Support by State
| wdt_ID | Candidate | Michigan | Pennsylvania | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biden | 16% | 20% | 13% |
| 2 | Bloomberg | 13% | 19% | 13% |
| 3 | Buttigieg | 11% | 12% | 12% |
| 4 | Klobuchar | 8% | 5% | 9% |
| 5 | Sanders | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| 6 | Warren | 13% | 9% | 12% |
| 7 | Not sure/other | 14% | 10% | 11% |
| 8 |
Democratic Primary Candidate Support by Respondent Race
| wdt_ID | Candidate | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biden | 13% | 35% | 16% |
| 2 | Bloomberg | 15% | 15% | 19% |
| 3 | Buttigieg | 14% | 1% | 7% |
| 4 | Klobuchar | 9% | 1% | 7% |
| 5 | Sanders | 27% | 19% | 36% |
| 6 | Warren | 11% | 13% | 7% |
| 7 | Not sure/other | 11% | 16% | 12% |
| 8 |
Democratic Primary Candidate Support by Respondent Gender
| wdt_ID | Candidate | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biden | 16% | 18% |
| 2 | Bloomberg | 17% | 14% |
| 3 | Buttigieg | 13% | 10% |
| 4 | Klobuchar | 7% | 8% |
| 5 | Sanders | 27% | 26% |
| 6 | Warren | 9% | 12% |
| 7 | Not sure/other | 11% | 12% |
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Democratic Primary Candidate Support by Respondent Age
| wdt_ID | Candidate | 18-29 | 30-45 | 45-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biden | 11% | 13% | 17% | 22% |
| 2 | Bloomberg | 3% | 8% | 17% | 26% |
| 3 | Buttigieg | 9% | 10% | 12% | 13% |
| 4 | Klobuchar | 4% | 2% | 8% | 12% |
| 5 | Sanders | 55% | 39% | 21% | 9% |
| 6 | Warren | 13% | 16% | 10% | 8% |
| 7 | Not sure/other | 5% | 12% | 15% | 10% |
| 8 |
Head-to-Head General Election Matchups Versus Trump by State
| wdt_ID | Candidate | Michigan | Pennsylvania | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biden vs. Trump | 47% to 43% | 46% to 45% | 45% to 43% |
| 2 | Buttigieg vs. Trump | 47% to 41% | 44% to 44% | 45% to 43% |
| 3 | Klobuchar vs. Trump | 44% to 41% | 43% to 43% | 44% to 43% |
| 4 | Sanders vs. Trump | 48% to 41% | 47% to 45% | 46% to 44% |
| 5 | Warren vs. Trump | 46% to 43% | 45% to 45% | 46% to 44% |
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