The Elections Research Center conducted surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between October 13 through 21, 2020. The survey asked respondents about the most important issue facing the country, opinions about Trump, campaign contact, and the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett.
Survey Results:
The survey reveals that Biden has extended his leads over President Trump in the three key battleground states. The difference from our previous poll in September is that a larger share of undecided and potential minor party voters has come to support Biden.
Biden has a massive lead among those who have already voted. Although Trump is favored by those who are yet to vote, the margin is not large enough to compensate for Biden’s advantage in the early vote.
When asked about the most important issue facing the country, likely voters identify the coronavirus as the most important issue facing the country. The nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for an opening on the U.S. Supreme Court has not raised the prominence of the court or abortion much.
Read our press release:
Read more detailed crosstab results:
Evaluations of Trump’s overall performance remain exceptionally stable and unfavorable on balance. More registered voters “strongly disapprove” of Trump (48%) than “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of him combined (44%).
Compared to the September survey, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of people who have been contacted by at least one of the campaigns. Among likely voters, 70% report being contacted, an increase of eight points from the previous survey. The increase has been most pronounced in Wisconsin.
About the survey:
The survey was conducted by YouGov, and the poll in Wisconsin was conducted in partnership with the Wisconsin State Journal.
The samples of 800 in each state were selected and weighted to reflect the adult population in the state based on gender, age, and education. The margin of error in each state sample ranges is around 4 percentage points.
Click on the descriptions below to reveal the results of our survey.
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Vote by Partisanship
| wdt_ID | Partisanship | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democrat | 95% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 848 |
| 2 | Republican | 7% | 91% | 0% | 2% | 682 |
| 3 | Ind/Other | 41% | 44% | 7% | 8% | 667 |
Vote by Gender
| wdt_ID | Gender | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Male | 45% | 49% | 3% | 3% | 1075 |
| 2 | Female | 57% | 37% | 2% | 4% | 1122 |
Vote by Race
| wdt_ID | Race | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White | 47% | 47% | 3% | 3% | 1847 |
| 2 | Black | 80% | 13% | 1% | 6% | 186 |
| 3 | Hispanic | 65% | 27% | 2% | 7% | 76 |
| 4 | Other | 59% | 30% | 5% | 6% | 87 |
Vote by Education
| wdt_ID | Education | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HS or less | 43% | 49% | 3% | 5% | 836 |
| 2 | Some college | 53% | 42% | 2% | 3% | 704 |
| 3 | College | 56% | 40% | 3% | 2% | 422 |
| 4 | Post-grad | 65% | 31% | 2% | 2% | 234 |
Vote by Age
| wdt_ID | Age | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18-29 | 66% | 25% | 5% | 4% | 378 |
| 2 | 30-45 | 59% | 32% | 4% | 5% | 528 |
| 3 | 45-65 | 43% | 52% | 2% | 3% | 815 |
| 4 | 65+ | 44% | 54% | 0% | 2% | 475 |
Vote by State
| wdt_ID | State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | 51% | 42% | 3% | 4% | 745 |
| 2 | Pennsylvania | 51% | 44% | 3% | 2% | 736 |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 51% | 43% | 2% | 4% | 716 |