The Elections Research Center conducted surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between September 10 through 21, 2020. The surveys asked voting-age citizens who they plan to vote for in the general election. Among other items, the survey also asked respondents about the most important issue facing the country, opinions about Trump, and campaign contact.
Survey Results:
The survey reveals that Biden maintains a persistent lead across all three battleground states, but margins have slightly narrowed since our previous poll in August.
Unlike in August, Biden’s lead actually narrows when limiting the focus to “likely” voters, defined as registered voters who also report that they are “certain” to vote. Biden remains near the 50% mark in all three states, but Trump narrows the gap among this key group of respondents.
When asked about the most important issue facing the country, each candidate’s supporters have starkly different perspectives. Whereas Biden voters place importance on the coronavirus, Trump voters are more focused on the economy.
These differences also extend to how their supporters plan to vote with Biden voters strongly in favor of voting by mail and Trump voters preferring to vote in person.
The survey also reveals differences in direct campaign contact across the candidate’s supporters. Trump voters are more likely to contacted by mail, while Biden supporters are more likely to hear from the candidate through email or text.
Other results are available in our press release or in our detailed cross-tabs.
About the survey:
The survey was conducted by YouGov, and the poll in Wisconsin was conducted in partnership with the Wisconsin State Journal.
The samples of 800 in each state were selected and weighted to reflect the adult population in the state based on gender, age, and education. The margin of error in each state sample ranges is around 4 percentage points.
Read our press release:
Read more detailed crosstab results:
Vote Intention among Registered Voters
Vote Intention among Registered Voters “Certain” to Vote
Click on the descriptions below to reveal the results of our survey.
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Vote Intention by Partisanship
| wdt_ID | Partisanship | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | I would not vote | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democrat | 91% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 846 |
| 2 | Republican | 4% | 90% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 677 |
| 3 | Ind/Other | 42% | 43% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 707 |
Vote Intention by Gender
| wdt_ID | Gender | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | I would not vote | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Male | 45% | 50% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1104 |
| 2 | Female | 54% | 37% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 1127 |
Vote Intention by Race
| wdt_ID | Race | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | I would not vote | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White | 46% | 47% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1863 |
| 2 | Black | 78% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 202 |
| 3 | Hispanic | 56% | 34% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 78 |
| 4 | Other | 52% | 37% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 87 |
Vote Intention by Education
| wdt_ID | Education | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | I would not vote | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HS or less | 44% | 48% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 850 |
| 2 | Some college | 50% | 44% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 727 |
| 3 | College | 53% | 39% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 401 |
| 4 | Post-grad | 60% | 34% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 253 |
Vote Intention by Age
| wdt_ID | Age | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | I would not vote | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18-29 | 63% | 26% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 369 |
| 2 | 30-45 | 56% | 33% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 542 |
| 3 | 45-65 | 42% | 52% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 817 |
| 4 | 65+ | 44% | 53% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 503 |
Vote Intention by State
| wdt_ID | State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other | Not sure | I would not vote | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | 50% | 42% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 737 |
| 2 | Pennsylvania | 49% | 44% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 723 |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 49% | 44% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 770 |